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World Economic Outlook, 2014: forecasting made easy

Three econometricians are out hunting. They spot a stag. Given this is a story about economists let us assume it is a deaf stag.The first econometrician aims, fires but misses to the left by a metre....

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Relative value: signal vs noise

Two competing – but sometimes overlapping – approaches to relative value / pairs trading are to take either a fundamental ‘signal’ view based on changes to factors such as the accounts, the...

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Money can't buy happiness...

...but a little bit helps.If your browser does not display the graphic the full article is here.

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What it is like to be a small business owner in France vs peers

Someone took the trouble to quantify what most owners of small French business structures (ie under 250 employees) have known for a long time: they are getting a seriously bad deal compared to, erm,...

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Merry Christmas from OPEC

Nice little graphic from the US Global Investors website:(link here to article)Whatever OPEC says there is a feeling that the pre-shale days are done. But perhaps more on that in the New Year.Season's...

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Journalistic risk in 2014

Reporters Without Frontiers produced this report for 2014 on the dangers of practicing their metier around the globe. France joined the top 5 yesterday on a dark, dark day and in a shockingly dreadful...

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Eurobonds vs da world: relative trumps intrinsic value

“We have this imminent bond-buying by the ECB -- at least that’s what everybody is expecting -- and if euro-zone yields are falling that makes Treasury yields relatively attractive, even at these...

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Largest national economies (plus forecast), 2002 - 2019

Where did Canada, Spain and Mexico go... (Source: CNN via dadaviz)

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That EU blacklist to save the tax system...

At least the Netherlands, Ireland, Luxembourg and Malta did not join the hypocrisy by including anyone on their lists.Last Wednesday the EU Commission published a list of 30 countries, including...

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Robo-advisors & fintech: Hal's on deck!

“I know that you and Frank were planning to disconnect me, and I’m afraid that is something I cannot allow to happen." (HAL, 2001: A Space Odyssey) Deep Blue vs Kasparov. John Henry vs the steam...

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Dumb beta

The attraction of a set of fixed factor criteria that lead to trading out-performance is strong and perennial. Unfortunately, the factors underlying the out-performance are not.Smart beta is a case in...

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Long-term investing: short-term investing gone wrong?

It frequently is to those in the hole. Or as Professor Thaler  of The Big Short fame says:“Just buying cheap stocks doesn’t do you any good unless they get less cheap soon”So consider value as an...

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What is long/short, anyway?

Long/short – what could go wrong? Hedged positions, protection etc etc etc. And yet there are headlines like this one:Here’s Why Long / Short Hedge Funds Are Getting HammeredOne of the problematic...

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Which hedge fund strategy?

An earlier entry pointed out how many sub-strategies there are under the title ‘long/short’. Take one step back and consider this table from the 2016 Preqin Global Hedge Fund Report (click for...

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Interactive Brokers: groom them from small

Most if not all advertising by financial services businesses is aspirational rather than functional. That is, the quality of the product is secondary to what it can do for your image and...

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How accurate is that hedge fund index?

Keeping in similar vein to a number of the previous entries about the mysteries of defining, selecting and tracking hedge fund strategies here is a 2015 paper by Swiss wealth manager Pictet titled...

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Venezuelan Paradox

If tomorrow there was a sand shortage in the Sahara it would befuddle many. A close second is how after many years of expensive oil prices Venezulea (highest proven  reserves in the world) is now...

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Negative rates - if we just understood them we'd take the medicine

It is sometimes easy to treat economic policy in the abstract and overlook its human cost. Or make claims involving the Greater Good. Such claims always merit close scrutiny. This Bloomberg piece by...

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no title

“It is usually agreed that casinos should, in the public interest, be inaccessible and expensive. And perhaps the same is true of Stock Exchanges. That the sins of the London Stock Exchange are less...

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Macquarie, MEIF 2 & NCP Group: 'long term' can't fix overpaying

Now Capitalized PrudentlyA decade ago this entry chronicling the incredible chase for the UK’s NCP Group’s car parks by private equity was published. Macquarie, it was suggested, would repent long...

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